This is the first of what I intend to be a regular series of letters on economics and markets. Before any market call, a word on why this exists and how I work — so the research can be judged on its own terms.
Why publish in the open
Most research is judged by its conclusions. I would rather be judged by the process behind them. Publishing openly enforces a discipline a private notebook never could: every view is dated, the reasoning is visible, and the record — the good calls and the bad — stays on the page. If the thinking does not survive being written down, it does not survive.
How I work
I read markets through two lenses at once. The CMT Program taught me to read the tape — trend, breadth, rotation, relative strength: what the market is actually doing. The CFA Program curriculum is the discipline of what something is worth. Most analysts pick a side. I work both — fundamentals for the what and why, technicals for the when and how much.
The workflow is top-down. Macro sets the opportunity set; sector and factor rotation say which parts of the market are being rewarded now; security-level work happens inside that frame, not in spite of it.
What these letters will be
Dated views on where we are in the cycle and what it implies for positioning — written to be inspectable, not merely persuasive. When I am wrong, the letter that was wrong stays up, and the next one says why.
Process over outcomes, over any single quarter. Outcomes are a noisy read on process quality at short horizons; the fix is to make the process impossible to hide.
Thanks for reading. More soon.
— Ken