Ken Capital Research
Independent research on macro regimes, market internals, security analysis, and portfolio construction.
An independent investment-research portfolio by Ken Zhang · Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business · Passed all three CMT Program examinations (charter pending qualifying experience) · CFA Program Level I candidate.
A journey through the markets, shared in the open. I publish research as I learn it — written plainly enough for someone starting out, and rigorously enough to hold up for professionals. The aim along the way is a career in equity portfolio management.
Featured research
SPY, September 2024 — A Higher High on Weaker Momentum
The bearish divergence call I pitched at the CMT 'Pitch the Pros' night — SPY above its averages while momentum quietly rolled over — recreated from the original study…
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569.67
SPY · Sep 23, 2024
above both MAs
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higher high
price
new high
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lower highs
14- & 30-day RSI
divergence
The framework
See the framework →Four lenses, in one order
Economics sets the regime, fundamentals value the business, quantitative work tests the evidence, and technicals read supply and demand — the four fuse into a single buy/sell decision.
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I
Economics
what regime are we in
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II
Fundamental
the how & why
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III
Quantitative
test the data
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IV
Technical
supply & demand
More writing
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Research essay
The Index Is More Active Than It Looks
A single inquiry into what sits beneath an index fund: why investors own equities at all, what the long-run record does and does not prove, how innovation reshapes the…
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Research note
Rivian, June 2023 — A Volume Read, Weeks Before the Q2 Beat
A dated technical read: on June 19, 2023 I flagged a converging triangle in Rivian and volume I took for early demand, two weeks before the July 3 production beat that…
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Research note
The Shiller CAPE — A Long-Term Map of Where Valuations Sit
Where the July 17, 2026 equity-valuation snapshot stood against 155 years of history — above the pandemic-era peak and below only the dot-com era.
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Research note
The Curve Prices the Fed — the Short End, Not the Long
In an efficient market the Treasury curve prices the expected path of the federal funds rate.
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Market letter
Inaugural Letter — Research in the Open
Why I'm publishing my investment research in the open, how I work, and what to expect from these letters.
What I cover
All coverage →- Economics
- Macro & rates
- Monetary policy
- Geopolitical events
- IPOs & new issues
New to the terms?
Full glossary →Every note links its jargon to a one-line, plain-English definition, so a reader who doesn't know a term gets it in place. A few to start:
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Federal funds rate
The overnight rate the Fed targets — its main policy lever.
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Term premium
The extra yield demanded for locking money up longer.
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Cointegration
The test for whether two wandering series are genuinely tied together long-run.
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