Ken Capital Research
Independent research on macro regimes, market internals, security analysis, and portfolio construction.
Research by
- Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business — BBA in Economics, expected Dec 2026
- Wealth Mill — Junior Investment Analyst Intern, equity research (Oct–Dec 2025)
- CMT Program — passed all three examinations (charter pending qualifying experience)
- CFA Program — Level I candidate
A journey through the markets, shared in the open. The research is written plainly enough for someone starting out, and rigorously enough to hold up for professionals. I'm seeking investment analyst and portfolio research roles, on the way to a career in equity portfolio management.
Featured research
The Curve Prices the Fed — the Short End, Not the Long
One regression at three points on the curve: the funds rate is cointegrated with the 2-year Treasury and only spuriously correlated with the 30-year mortgage.
-
p = 0.0002
Funds ↔ 2-year
cointegrated
-
p = 0.224
Funds ↔ 30-year mortgage
spurious
-
β = 0.005
Funds, given the 10-year
adds nothing
The framework
See the framework →Four lenses, in one order
Economics sets the regime, fundamentals value the business, quantitative work tests the evidence, and technicals read supply and demand — the four fuse into a single buy/sell decision.
-
I
Economics
what regime are we in
-
II
Fundamental
the how & why
-
III
Quantitative
test the data
-
IV
Technical
supply & demand
More writing
-
Research essay
The Index Is More Active Than It Looks
A single inquiry into what sits beneath an index fund: why investors own equities at all, what the long-run record does and does not prove, how innovation reshapes the…
-
Research note
Rivian, June 2023 — A Volume Read, Weeks Before the Q2 Beat
A dated technical read: on June 19, 2023 I flagged a converging triangle in Rivian and volume I took for early demand, two weeks before the July 3 production beat that…
-
Research note
The Shiller CAPE — A Long-Term Map of Where Valuations Sit
Where the July 17, 2026 equity-valuation snapshot stood against 155 years of history — above the pandemic-era peak and below only the dot-com era.
-
Research note
SPY, September 2024 — A Higher High on Weaker Momentum
The bearish divergence call I pitched at the CMT 'Pitch the Pros' night — SPY above its averages while momentum quietly rolled over — recreated from the original study…
-
Market letter
Inaugural Letter — Research in the Open
Why I'm publishing my investment research in the open, how I work, and what to expect from these letters.
What I cover
All coverage →- Economics
- Macro & rates
- Monetary policy
- Geopolitical events
- IPOs & new issues
New to the terms?
Full glossary →Every note links its jargon to a one-line, plain-English definition, so a reader who doesn't know a term gets it in place. A few to start:
-
Federal funds rate
The overnight rate the Fed targets — its main policy lever.
-
Term premium
The extra yield demanded for locking money up longer.
-
Cointegration
The test for whether two wandering series are genuinely tied together long-run.
Get new work by email
New research notes, essays, and market letters, sent when they publish. You'll get a one-click confirmation email first — unsubscribe anytime.