Research
Research
Notes and evidence-based essays on economics and markets — each piece states a view, the reasoning, and the limits of the argument.
-
Research essay
The Index Is More Active Than It Looks
A single inquiry into what sits beneath an index fund: why investors own equities at all, what the long-run record does and does not prove, how innovation reshapes the market's winners, why broad ownership and diversification answer an unsolvable forecasting problem, how competitive prices become portfolio weights, and where the approach is strongest and weakest — the case for indexing as a powerful default rather than a universal law.
· 43 min read
-
Research note
Rivian, June 2023 — A Volume Read, Weeks Before the Q2 Beat
A dated technical read: on June 19, 2023 I flagged a converging triangle in Rivian and volume I took for early demand, two weeks before the July 3 production beat that ran it to roughly a double off the June low. Paper-traded — one worked example of a process, not a track record.
· 15 min read
-
Research note
The Shiller CAPE — A Long-Term Map of Where Valuations Sit
Where the July 17, 2026 equity-valuation snapshot stood against 155 years of history — above the pandemic-era peak and below only the dot-com era. A long-term map, not a short-term call.
· 4 min read
-
Research note
SPY, September 2024 — A Higher High on Weaker Momentum
The bearish divergence call I pitched at the CMT 'Pitch the Pros' night — SPY above its averages while momentum quietly rolled over — recreated from the original study and reproduced to the penny.
· 12 min read
-
Research note
The Curve Prices the Fed — the Short End, Not the Long
In an efficient market the Treasury curve prices the expected path of the federal funds rate. The same regression at three points on the curve shows the funds rate is cointegrated with the 2-year Treasury, spurious against the 30-year mortgage, and — once the 10-year is in the model — adds nothing the long end has not already priced.
· 24 min read