Topic
Macro
2 pieces on macro. All coverage →
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Research note
The Shiller CAPE — A Long-Term Map of Where Valuations Sit
Where the July 17, 2026 equity-valuation snapshot stood against 155 years of history — above the pandemic-era peak and below only the dot-com era. A long-term map, not a short-term call.
· 4 min read
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Research note
The Curve Prices the Fed — the Short End, Not the Long
In an efficient market the Treasury curve prices the expected path of the federal funds rate. The same regression at three points on the curve shows the funds rate is cointegrated with the 2-year Treasury, spurious against the 30-year mortgage, and — once the 10-year is in the model — adds nothing the long end has not already priced.
· 24 min read